Run down
New Zealand/West Indies/England - not good enough to win 3 games in a row against the good teams. England more on current form rather than ability. I would be lease surprised to see England there of these 3.
Pakistan - Just don't have the discipline to win big games...though have disproved this pretty well in tourney so far. If they do win, it will be like tossing heads 20 times in a row - very possible, but good luck trying.
Australia - They are Australia so if they are there they can win. The batsmen are the big worry. Too many players out of form. They will either chew up too many balls not hitting singles or too many balls hitting singles. I'd feel more comfortable with D Hussey and Ferguson in the team for White and/or Ponting but stubbornness will say it wont' happen. Bowlers are good enough (just) if they batsmen give them the runs.
Sri Lanka - Again they have the players but just don't have the wow to win. Malinga is a key but if the opposition play him well and score 300, then they might have trouble chasing. To win they should come up against India or South Africa. Tehy will handle Malinga better than Kenya did
India - Great top order. If they score 300 then they can win. If they only score 250, then the tail may just fold and provide a chasable score. Bowling is ok, but not great.
South Africa - best chance to remove the choker chain from their neck. Have spinners which will help. Their batsmen are absolute stars. If they fire along with their quicks, they will be unbeatable. Self imploding will be the key.
I can think of more reasons why teams will lose than why they will win. I reckon South Africa to win, with Sri Lanka as a more than realistic chance. having said that, I think bar New Zealand and the West Indies, any team can realistically sneak in (even the Poms.)