by ben
2. May 2010 11:35
Another interesting day yesterday despite a dull first game in which India cruised past Afghanistan. Frankly I think India took it easy on them given that none of them, not one of them, could play the short ball. If Praveen Kumar & Zaheer Khan had bowled the 2 overs they had left between them and come back earlier it could have been an embarrassment. Bangladesh had a good go at chasing down an imposing 172 but were left to regret some profligate bowling in the first four overs which probably gifted Pakistan 10 runs and with the added pressure it was a step too far. Interestingly as with the India/Afghanistan game it was pace rather than spin that did the damage generally.
I fancied Bangladesh to get close to their target and actually topped up my win bet on them in the interval at 19/1 before laying it off towards the end but it wasn't to be. My man Kamran Akmal cruised past his over target with his score of 73 meaning he didn't even need the 2 catches he took which gave him a total of 93 points. My punt on Raina to be top Indian bat didn't pan out as he got done by a slightly quicker one from Samiullah Shenwari.
On to today's games and it's the four best teams in the tournament all playing in one day. India/South Africa are up first and talent wise I think India have the upper hand but they're exactly the sort of team to take their foot off the pedal now they have essentially qualified and that is reflected in the dead even match betting. I like India to score over 157.5 if they bat first at evens on CricketBetLive. On the same site MS Dhoni's match performance line is 35.5 points* and I fancy him to go over that. He should get a decent bat at 4 and may well have the chance to bat against South Africa's spinners. On top of that I always fancy a Saffer to charge down the wicket at a spinner, get beaten all ends up, fall over and get stumped.
I think Australia will beat Pakistan today mainly because of Dirk Nannes and Mitchell Johnson and on top of that the three Ws they have (White, Watson & Warner) give them three stabs at a game changing innings. Despite that with the win at 1.60 on Betfair there's not any value with Australia. After Kamran Akmal produced the goods for me yesterday it's tempting to ride him but I prefer Shahid Afridi for the simple reason that he is less likely to have to face Dirk Nannes. His line is 37.5* which compares favourably with his career T20I average of 46.5 and he took 3-14 against an admittedly rather different Australian line up in Dubai just over a year ago. I also like David Warner to score over 21.5 runs with CricketBetLive at 1.90. Another approach to this is to back him to outscore his opening partner Shane Watson which is about 1.95 on Betfair. He has done this in 5 of the 7 times they have opened in T20I with 1 tie.
Top pick of the day is for India to score over 157.5 but since that will be void if they don't bat first after that I like Warner to outscore Watson. Good luck.
* - 1 point per run, 20/wicket, 10/catch, 25/stumping
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