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It's finally here, get your money down

by ben 23. November 2010 17:52

We're finally there. It's time. We have less than 29 betting hours before the toss at the Gabba. Our friends over at CricketBetLive have a plethora of markets up for both the 1st test and the entire Ashes and I've been thinking constantly about where to make my plays.

Looking at the series overall there are markets on individual player performance for almost all those who will be taking part and a number of specials including the option to bet on whether either side will fail to win even one test (England 4.7 & Australia 10.0). For the series I'm sticking my neck out and backing Alastair Cook to surge back into form. He has started decently in the warm ups and his lines reflect his recent international woes. His series runs line is a lowly 290.5 and he is 7.0 (6 to 1) to be the top England bat. On the bowling front I like Stuart Broad as I think he will be able to utilise any help that there is in the wicket without having to rely on overhead conditions for swing. You can back him at evens to take more wickets than Ben Hilfenhaus who looked great in 2009 in England but won't have the same atmospheric help back home. If you needed any more convincing how about an article all about how Hilfy isn't a crap bowler at home; seen many of those about Anderson's bowling overseas? Exactly, lots, you don't need your agent to arrange articles talking you up if you're good, you only need them if you're bad.

As for the first test it's all about the Gabba. The pitch has had some juice this year with Queensland getting bowled out for under 100 twice in a Sheffield Shield match here and Sri Lanka being dismissed for 115 in the final match of a one day series which, admittedly, they had already won. I like the under on both teams' first innings runs at 399.5 for Australia and 349.5 for England. I also like the fall of the first wicket at under 34.5 for Aus and 31.5 for England.

Finally, I couldn't resist putting a little something on Australia to not win a single test. It's obviously a long shot at 10.0 but with some iffy weather forecast over the next two months increasing the possibilities of a draw or two and the potential for Australia to be forced to chase games if they go behind (which I think they will) it's not a ridiculous shout.

Good luck.

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Comments

I've got a few on the player performance.

Over on Matt Prior at 79.5. This seems like a big underestimate to me. Keeping value brings this down at least 20 or 25 points and he's been one of England's best bats over the last year and a half.

Under on Jimmy at 87.5. 4 wkts/match would be pretty average to good anyway, he's not likely to contribute much with the bat and on a hot seaming wicket he'll take a back seat to Broad.

Under on Watson at 100.5. He won't take wickets as 6th bowler without swing and without Pakistan's batsmen.

Over on Ponting at 75.5. Just a gut inclination. Just the type of cricketer to flick two fingers at me if I bet against him.

Under on Haddin at 85.5. Why is he considered better than Prior? Isn't as good a batsman and can be shaky with the gloves.

Swann to take more wickets than Doherty. Obvious, shit odds, yes. But I fully expect X to get a rude awakening to Test cricket and end up with most of his overs bowled by North.

By Howe_zat on 11/23/2010 6:49:28 PM

1/6. Fuck me I was awful. Watson has to go and take two catches to push his over the line. Ponting drops two to keep his under. No fucking justice. See you for the next Test.

By Howe_zat on 11/29/2010 3:45:08 PM

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