by ben
16. May 2010 09:42
Through a bizarre format, rain delays and some close shaves we have ended up with the two best teams in the tournament contesting the final of the ICC World T20 Cup in Barbados. After their display against Pakistan on Friday Australia are heavily favoured and understandably so. They have four top quality destructive batsmen (the 3 Ws and Mike Hussey) and three bowlers hurling it down at over 90mph. Add to that a sharp fielding unit and completely justified self-confidence and it's almost surprising that England aren't longer than 2.60. England have their stars in Pietersen, Morgan and suprisingly Bresnan who have performd consistently well in this tournament but as a team their real trick so far has to avoid having any serious weak link.
One can construct a scenario for England victory easily enough but there really is just one option - get after the fourth & fifth bowlers for Australia as Pakistan did. The one target area in the batting line up is Clarke and it's almost impossible to target someone you want to keep at the crease. Australia on the other hand will look to expose the inexperienced Lumb and Kiesweter at the top of the order, the out of form Paul Collingwood in the middle and the collection of bits of pieces all rounders in the lower order (Bresnan, Yardy, Swann). When batting Australia will be comfortable attacking any of England's pace attack, especially the waddling Sidebottom and the sometimes nervy Broad. Yardy's magic knack for wickets has dried up in the last two games as the quality of the opposition has moved up a notch and when you say out loud that we expect a left arm bowler who has taken 26 first class wickets at 77.03 to be our fifth bowler it seems totally ridiculous. So even as Englishman I can't bring myself to take a punt at 2.60.
Just because I don't want to wager on the match outcome now doesn't mean it won't make sense later. Nine of the ten games played in Barbados have been won by the side batting first so I like the idea of sticking some money down on whoever wins the toss. On the player performance bets I like Haddin over 29.5* at CricketBetLive as he's been batting well enough and should get at least one catch. Also at CricketBetLive the England runs spread if they bat first is 152.5-157.5 and I like the over here. Even if England start poorly I think they should be able to sneak up to 160 and if they start well you'll have the opportunity to lay it off and get a nice middle. Finally another bet I like is the supremacy bet at ExtraBet. This is a spread bet where you back the margin of victory with 1 point for a run and 10 points per wicket - for example a win by 3 wickets is 30 points. The spread is 6-14 in favour of Australia and I'm a buyer of that as I think Australia could easily win by more than 1 wicket or more than 14 runs and on the flip side if England win I think it will be close.
Favourite bet of the day is the supremacy bet. Good luck.
* 20 points per wicket, 1/run, 10/catch, 25/stumping
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