September 2010

I've done some posts unprepared before but I think this takes the biscuit. The biscuit that has been soaked in two pints of bitter and a couple of bottles of cheap sauvignon blanc. Luckily, I spoke to sofa stalwart and all-round insomniac Lizzy and she told me that India are playing Australia so I'm completely up to speed.

Step one:

It's India in India. Go over the runs, always. The line at CricketBetLive for both sides is 400. The Aussie bowling is weak with a shit spinner, the Indian bowling is weak with a shit injured spinner. This spells runs.

Step two:

I don't know if you're familiar with Shane Watson or not, but he's a twat. A flat track bully wanker who can't even bat that well on flat tracks. His record in India is 170 runs in 7 test innings for an abysmal average of 24.28. I know that was all in 2008 before he became the new, uglier, more annoying Matthew Hayden, and I know that was all at number six but he's still not good.  The Mohali pitch has some green on it and I like him under 36.5 at CBL, a score which he has only passed twice in India before.

Step three:

Bed time.

* 1 point per run, 10/catch, 25/stumping, 20/wicket

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This is my final post speculating on the England team and players until they set foot in Australia. That doesn't mean a pause in betting more generally though as there is the Champions League semi-finals and final this weekend before Australia then go to India for two tests and two ODIs.

I was at Lords for the heated affair on Monday and it was very tense until Gul came in and below the England tail away. Strauss was seriously fired up and looked like he wanted to charge down and hit every ball back over the bowlers' heads. I expect similar tension this evening as the teams meet in the deciding game of the series. The best batting conditions should be available early on and for that reason I like the over on both side's runs.  The lines at CricketBetLive are 270.5 for England and 251.5 for Pakistan.

For the players I like Steve Davies over 43.5 points, also at CBL. He has rewarded backers in three out of the first four ODIs so far and it has generally been much easier batting against pace at the top of the innings rather than spin in the middle or reverse swing towards the end. I would avoid Akmal's line of 40.5 because, despite his good form with the bat, he has had very few catching or stumping chances with Gul spearing yorkers in at the stumps for the bulk of Pakistan's wickets.

Pick of the day is the overs for both sides. There is a prize for anyone who gets the reference in today's title. Good luck.

* 1 point per run, 10/catch, 25/stumping, 20/wicket

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Just a quick one from me today.  I like the overs for both teams' run lines (274.5 for England and 260.5 for Pakistan) at CricketBetLive.  Lords is a good batting strip with a quick outfield. England are likely to add the in form Ian Bell to their line up and will hopefully have Collingwood back. Afridi is surely going to come off at some point.

I like Swann over 32.5 points*. He has taken at least 2 wickets on each of his three previous ODIs at Lords, often gets a chance for a catch of two and should contribute with the bat if he gets a chance.

If I am wrong with any of my picks I will deny that I wrote this post and then accuse you of attempting to discredit me and of fixing the match.

Good luck.

* 1 point per run, 10/catch, 25/stumping, 20/wicket

CricketBetLive have put a special promotion on for Test Match Sofa fans.

After a few days off we move to the Oval for the third ODI and the ante-penultimate international of the English summer. There are few reasons to suspect that Pakistan will be any better but Gary pointed out during the last match that the England team had an "end of term" air about them. They were sloppy in the field in both the first two ODIs and didn't look like were particularly bothered about the result. It's understandable in some ways, England know they are the better side, they have proved to everyone else that they are the better side over four tests, two T20Is and two ODIs and they are looking forward to a break after a long summer. There are also some Pakistanis with a chance to stake a claim for a regular place in the team - Irfan, Alam and Shafiq - who will be giving it their......

....it's not working. I can't talk myself into taking Pakistan here. I was burned by them in the T20Is and at 3.20 I don't see the value.  Despite that England's lacklustre attitude makes the match betting here a stay away in my opinion.

There are some other bets which are interesting though. I'm sticking with Steve Davies and his good form and I like the over 44.5 points* for him at CricketBetLive. He's been in good form with the bat and has a good chance at a couple of catches behind the stumps and maybe even a stumping with Yardy and Swann bowling. Kamran Akmal seems to have waited until the end of the summer to find some form with the bat, scoring 50s in both of the ODIs so far, and I like the over for his line at 40.5 points* as well.

The run lines for the match are 280 for England and 260 for Pakistan.  I like the over for Pakistan, the team are finding their feet somewhat, England's fielding has been subpar so far this series and the Oval is a good strip.

Good luck.

* 1 point per run, 10/catch, 25/stumping, 20/wicket

CricketBetLive have put a special promotion on for Test Match Sofa fans.

Pakistan continue to look terrible following the spot fixing scandal. They batted poorly in the 2nd T20I on Tuesday and looked completely unmotivated in the field. It's hard to see past England in pretty much any market around but there is still some value to be had.

I like Eoin Morgan to score more runs than Umar Akmal at 1.78 at CricketBetLive. His quick hands should be well suited to playing the ball late in tough conditions. The overhead conditions will help the ball swing and the pitch will likely be fairly slow (both factors which also count against Umar). I also like Steve Davies over 41.5 at 1.9. He is in good form and looks comfortable against the pace of Akhtar.

When the line is up at CBL for 1st wicket for England I like the over here if it is under 30, Akhtar can be wayward and they have Umar Gul and a debutant as the other options. I'm definitely looking forward to the debut of the giant Mohammed Irfan but even at 7ft 1in I think he will be dragged down to Pakistan's miserable level.

Favourite bet is Morgan. Good luck.

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